I can’t tell you how many times I have seen online posted threads of impending economic doom.    Let me first say that I respect the views of these authors and know they have done a great job of warning less savvy audiences of what to expect next.  Let me also add that we are by no means out of the woods.  There is far more downside risk than most people would care to believe in our economy.  However, sometimes the doomsaying goes too far overboard.  Here are some recent cracks that are just silly; I have changed the wording so as not to impugn any particular writer:

This one will bring the market rally to a scraping halt.

or:

This will be a bloodbath of ghastly proportions.

Or my personal favorite:

The crash will create an unfathomable wave of suicides.

Let me first admit I am not an economist, I’ve never played one on TV, and I didn’t stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night.   That said, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that every shoe we see drop is part of a broader unwinding economic death spiral.   NOT a plane crash, a death spiral.  Let me explain the difference.

The engine is dead, the pilot is a rookie, and there’s no airfield in clear sight.   All are very frightening and unpleasant facts.  But the airframe and wings are intact and there is sufficient airspeed to maintain a downward glide.  Will the plane land safely?  Who knows?  Is the downside risk high?  You bet!  That’s why many of us (doomsayers included) have recommended stocking up beans, bullets, and bullion.

Here’s my point: there needs to be a modicum of balance. Shakespeare wrote, “Neither a borrower nor a lender be.” I would suggest further: neither a doomsayer nor Pollyanna be.  It can adversely impact ones credibility.

Advertisements